Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 78891.024310 83303.476344 87714.230428 92450.909112 97390.376577 102386.179717 107817.604976
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 71052.451359 77763.994764 84661.453589 92269.670981 100416.203981 108867.267819 118286.674814
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 66429.342120 74774.185383 83537.150949 93404.330453 104184.197087 115582.240065 128523.509589
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 61866.434925 71329.932182 81451.572709 93048.203427 105931.866049 119770.858609 135723.857382
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 59329.042494 69825.744703 81229.456942 94488.293951 109427.582105 125686.844864 144666.691849
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 56847.805907 68171.814409 80650.329716 95352.224521 112127.740581 130600.169724 152404.383508
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 54202.363829 66155.406890 79503.524256 95424.985322 113805.268941 134263.540973 158658.393200
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 51719.184375 64184.122627 78279.244013 95286.627336 115134.681992 137447.395090 164303.489005
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 50600.146271 63730.396899 78743.277733 97042.766810 118602.562593 143050.457998 172716.211254
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 49567.777336 63310.200447 79188.301714 98727.804316 121953.931527 148504.670477 180965.388676
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 48124.463188 62323.278129 78898.786604 99488.166064 124175.479048 152618.802861 187647.810217
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 46262.622795 60750.163230 77838.227516 99262.938573 125173.774031 155258.944111 192576.684443
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 44772.528047 59606.168307 77281.367753 99645.633149 126920.914531 158829.875065 198685.971552
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 43167.850516 58264.689389 76437.016871 99639.864368 128173.871776 161804.022132 204097.549275
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 42287.708214 57794.788178 76633.687146 100885.656184 130933.579080 166584.430659 211693.403932
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 40683.996759 56347.323580 75562.910344 100514.945972 131674.273733 168902.485207 216308.337804
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 40073.324270 56146.396743 76032.321448 102048.475581 134756.943476 174070.163231 224404.144762
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 39219.303741 55595.865324 76031.173760 102967.671702 137063.304656 178289.015471 231358.412127
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 38034.972810 54572.319838 75390.896337 103045.126539 138292.613939 181171.193118 236673.382928
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 36813.871430 53460.372773 74600.804504 102897.997844 139212.468976 183654.305221 241491.891492
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 36518.689977 53569.307481 75382.048575 104765.468481 142688.451824 189329.205496 250299.948184
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 36209.529334 53643.860758 76107.860286 106556.942694 146072.746249 194906.539684 259020.422041
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 35512.192279 53167.512850 76089.978973 107365.211933 148190.163768 198897.536752 265773.817592